What it Takes to Make a Profit and a Living from Horse Racing Handicapping

Are you one of the many people who is trying to make a living or supplement your income with horse racing?

Every week I have people email me asking if it is really possible to make a profit from horse racing and whether they can make a living at handicapping races. I try to answer them honestly and it probably costs me many sales. On the other hand, over the years, it has helped me to develop a following of people who would rather hear the truth than a sales pitch.

I have had years when I made a profit from horse racing. It was work, but I kept good records and knew at the end of the year that I had indeed made money. So to answer the question, is it possible to make a profit from horse racing handicapping, the answer is, yes. But, that doesn't mean that you can do it, it only means that I did it. I like to tell people that I am not the sharpest tack in the box, so I believe that many other people can and probably do make a profit at the horse races.

But like I said, I don't know if you can do it, that depends on many factors. First of all, let me assure you, that if you are strapped for cash and trying to make money at the races, it will be some tough sledding. Risking money you can't afford to lose is almost certain to cause you more problems and is not a sound plan to solve your money problems. Scared money doesn't win.

On the other hand, if you can put aside a bankroll, school yourself with a few good systems and practice using them, then you may be able to show a profit. But, once again, there is a difference between making a profit and making a living. How much money do you need? How much money do you have to bankroll your handicapping project?

While things seldom work out as easily or cleanly in real life as they do on paper, I always advise people to sit down first and outline their goals, especially financial goals. The first question to be answered is, how much do you have in your bankroll? Secondly, how much do you want to make? Finally, how much will you have to wager per day, week, month, year, to achieve your goal with a 10% profit?

That 10% is arbitrary, I realize that, but it is a starting figure. If you can make 10% profit over the long haul from your bets at the horse races, you're doing good. If you can show a better profit ratio, my hat is off to you. So let's say you are extremely good at handicapping horse races and can make a profit of 20% on all your wagers over time.

To make a yearly figure of $10,000, hardly enough to support a person in the United States, unless you like the taste of cat food and don't mind keeping your belongings in a shopping cart, then you will have to make $50,000 worth of bets in a year to reach that goal of $10,000. You can plug in your own numbers, I am just trying to show the process that I recommend you use to decide how realistic your goals are.

My own recommendation is that you first find a good system and learn how to use it making small bets that you can afford. Once you have a good idea of what you can do, then sit down and make a plan on paper using a similar process.

Use Stud Fees, Breeder Information and Sales Prices to Handicap Horse Races

Here is an angle that is often overlooked in horse racing handicapping. Thoroughbred breeding and sales is a huge business. Thoroughbreds with good confirmation and breeding sell for six and sometimes seven figures.

The people who breed and sell and buy thoroughbreds are very good judges of horse flesh, because they have to be, it's their livelihood. So you can get some valuable clues to a horse's potential by looking at what the horse sold for at auction, who the owner is, and what the stud fee is.

The first place to look is at the stud fee that was paid to breed the mare who gave birth to the horse, the dam. If you see that a horse actually sold for less than the stud fee, that is a bad sign. It means someone paid more money to produce the horse than the horse sold for.

Here is an example, Opening Page is a 3 year old colt out of the sire, Deputy Wild Cat whose stud fee is a modest $3,500. But Opening Page only sold for $2,400 at the Ocala Breeders Sale in 2007. That means the breeder, in this case, Newchance Farm in Florida, wanted to sell the foal very quickly and took a very low price. Usually, that's a bad sign.

And now, here is a twist, while this information would usually indicate a horse who is destined for the low priced claiming ranks, after 7 races, Opening Page did manage to win a Maiden Special Weight event at Monmouth on September 10, 2008. He was in against a group of well bred horses who had all sold for more than Opening Page, but were also all less raced.

Apparently, some good conditioning by the trainer, Frank Costa, and good riding by Carlos M. Cruz, along with the extra experience, paid off for Opening Page. But don't expect to see that happen very often, because it won't.

If you see a horse that sold for less than its stud fee, or is owned by the breeder, beware. It may be that the breeder couldn't sell the horse so he or she decided to try to bring it along and get it racing. It may be a horse with problems that the breeder figures will eventually be worked out, but that no other person is willing to deal with. There have been some horse that sold for large figures and then disappointed the owners, but despite the occasional misses, the breeders and buyers are usually good at spotting a "good un." Use that information to pick more winners.

Are Speed Figures Over Rated in Horse Racing Handicapping

This is a question that has been asked many times in the last ten years. At one time no one doubted that speed figures were the key to finding the fastest horse in a race. But now, with everyone using speed figures, the question is, are they over rated?

How valuable are those numbers that tell you how fast the horse ran its last race, when every one who can read a racing form is seeing the same numbers? Obviously, you, along with the crowd, will see the same numbers and usually draw the same conclusions from them. This horse ran the fastest at the distance most recently, therefore, this is the logical first choice.

The favorite is a lousy bet most of the time due to a poor win loss ration of 1 win to 2 losses. Therefore, you have to turn the tables on the crowd and use speed figures against them. If they want to bet the horse with the highest number, then your job is to find the races where that isn't enough to get the job done.

Some examples of this are, a horse who scored a high speed figure on a sloppy track. A sloppy wet and fast track will often show a number that is abnormally high. Also in this group of unreliable numbers are races of less than five and a half furlongs. If you don't believe it, just look at some old programs and see how many horses score huge numbers in very short races but fail to satisfy at 6 furlongs or more.

Next in the line of unreliable numbers are the races over 1 1/4 miles. The races that are very long or very short just don't stand up to the speed figure methodology.

Therefore, I'd say speed figures are still a great way to find profitable bets, as long as you know when to bet with them and when to bet against them. They can work for you in either circumstance depending upon the other conditions of the race and runners.

Following Horses, the Pros and Cons of keeping a List of Horses to Watch

There are many methods of picking winners and making money at the race track. Some people like to handicap a race and try to find a winner or good bet by comparing the merits of the runners and then figuring which one is the most likely to win and then who is second likeliest to win, etc. There are others who like spot plays, those situational bets that come along when a runner is in a situational that has paid off in the past.

For other people it is the money. They play the tote board and try to beat the odds or find a good bet based on probability. An example of that situation is a Dr. Z bet where a horses win odds indicate it will hit the board a certain percentage of times, but yet it is under bet in the place and show pools. Others look for overlays in the exactas and trifectas.

Then there are the old plodders, the dying breed of horse man, like myself, who still follow the animals. I keep a list of runners, their recent works and wait for them to reach their peak form. When I know they are in form and ready to win, and have a smart trainer who also knows that, I wait to see what kind of race he or she can find for the promising athlete.

I recommend using the virtual stables that are available on several of the big horse racing websites for this job. They will send you an email when your horse is ready to race and you can go and check the race out to see if the trainer has indeed found the right spot for it.

Does this sound like a lot of work? It is a lot of work, but it is also fun to watch an animal race and workout until it is ready to win. There are few joys in life that surpass betting on a runner and knowing that it has a great chance of winning and you and the trainer are on the same page.

Hidden Money in the Exotics are Tips to Horses That Are Ready to Win

If you like cashing winning tickets on horses that go off at good odds, here is a tip that can really pay off. At the smaller tracks or where the pools are small, there is sometimes too little in the win pool to make a sizable bet without seriously changing the odds.

So what do the owners and insiders at those tracks do when they have a horse that is ready to win and they want to make a score? They leverage their bets by letting the win odds go up by not betting to win and they confine their betting to the exotics. The beauty of this, for them, is that they can make a higher return off a smaller bet.

By not betting their horse to win, they don't tip off the public that the horse is live. For instance, if they have a horse that is ready to score but there is only a few thousand dollars in the total win pool, a sizable bet on their runner will show up when the odds drop significantly on their entry. So they take the money they would've put into the win bet and bet in the exacta and tri pool instead.

By comparing the exotic payoffs to the win odds you will soon be able to spot horses that are live. Your next decision is to decide whether to bet the same way the owners have or to put some money into the win pool and bet it to win. I recommend both bets, but only at the last minute so as not to tip off the public. Just because you've figured it out it doesn't mean you have to share that knowledge with the crowd.

Now here is an even better tip. Look at the payoffs from one of these small tracks and start looking for abnormally short prices on exactas and triples compared to the win and place payoffs for the first two finishers. Remember, some smart stables will have their horse come in second and wheel it in the bottom of the exacta and in second place in the trifecta. That way, there horse still won't be bet too heavily next time out, because it failed to win, and they can also get a good price in second place in the exotics.

As you do this detective work, spotting the stables that play that game, keep a list of those stables and look for their runners each day. You will soon be able to spot a good bet that the public is unaware of and you'll be betting like an insider.

Learn to Answer These Horse Racing Questions and You'll Pick More Winners Just Like an Insider

There are a few questions that you can learn the answers to that will help you to cash more winning tickets at the races. The thing is, these questions are always the same, but the answers change with each race. Not only that, but the answers don't even stay the same when dealing with the same animal.

How observant are you when you go to the races? Think you see a lot and know a lot about the horses you bet on? Then answer this question, was the last horse you bet on wearing a tongue tie? Did it have front wraps on? If it did or didn't answer this, did it have a tongue tie or wraps in the race before that one?

If you are fortunate enough to be able to go to a race track and can watch the horses in the paddock before the races, start keeping notes on your program and save the program. The next time the same horse races, observe it once again and make notes about the equipment and how it behaves in the paddock.

Do you realize how important the addition of a tongue tie is? It can make a dramatic change in a runner's performance. The same is true of wraps and those front bandages can also signal a problem, or a crafty trainer who is trying to keep his or her horse from being claimed.

If you jot notes about the equipment, the horse's attitude in the saddling ring, and the odds, and compare them to the last time the horse raced, you'll start to learn some things that the insiders at the track would rather you didn't know. If you see lower odds and notice a tongue tie and that the horse is on its toes or looks better than the last time, you may have found yourself a very good bet.

The Best Horseracing Handicapping System

A lot has changed in the horse racing handicapping field and the systems that used to be profitable a few years ago are no longer picking winners, right? Wrong. The same methodology that picked the best runners in the past will still pick the best runners.

The reason is that the fundamentals of the game have not changed. it still comes down to the big three, Speed, Class, Form. You can throw in the connections as a fourth consideration if you like, but that is about it. As far as the connections go, it is a two edged sword. You hardly ever get a good price on a top trainer or jockey who is on anything that looks good.

So if price is the name of the game, and let's face it, when it comes to making a profit off the races, price is the game, then adding the best connections in as a handicapping factor may be counterproductive. If you are looking for a good method to pick enough winners to show a profit, then here is what you need to know...

1. How often do the horses the system picks win?

2. How much do the winners pay?

3. How many picks a day/week/month?

The best system has to hit winners enough of the time to keep you in the game. In order to make big enough bets to make a living off anything you are using it will have to be a sizable part of your bankroll, unless you are a millionaire. For instance, let's say you have a bankroll of 5,000 and want to make bets of 5%. That means each bet will be 250. If you are making a 10% profit (and that is a good one) then you will be averaging 25+ per bet. If you make 1000 in bets, that's four bets a day, then you will only realize 100.

Before you pick a good horseracing system, make sure you can answer the above questions or at least know how much you want to make each day/week/month and how much you can risk to do it.