Are Speed Figures Over Rated in Horse Racing Handicapping

This is a question that has been asked many times in the last ten years. At one time no one doubted that speed figures were the key to finding the fastest horse in a race. But now, with everyone using speed figures, the question is, are they over rated?

How valuable are those numbers that tell you how fast the horse ran its last race, when every one who can read a racing form is seeing the same numbers? Obviously, you, along with the crowd, will see the same numbers and usually draw the same conclusions from them. This horse ran the fastest at the distance most recently, therefore, this is the logical first choice.

The favorite is a lousy bet most of the time due to a poor win loss ration of 1 win to 2 losses. Therefore, you have to turn the tables on the crowd and use speed figures against them. If they want to bet the horse with the highest number, then your job is to find the races where that isn't enough to get the job done.

Some examples of this are, a horse who scored a high speed figure on a sloppy track. A sloppy wet and fast track will often show a number that is abnormally high. Also in this group of unreliable numbers are races of less than five and a half furlongs. If you don't believe it, just look at some old programs and see how many horses score huge numbers in very short races but fail to satisfy at 6 furlongs or more.

Next in the line of unreliable numbers are the races over 1 1/4 miles. The races that are very long or very short just don't stand up to the speed figure methodology.

Therefore, I'd say speed figures are still a great way to find profitable bets, as long as you know when to bet with them and when to bet against them. They can work for you in either circumstance depending upon the other conditions of the race and runners.